kravietz 🦇 @kravietz@social.privacytools.io

@dump_stack

I disagree. Many people in Russia I talked to about politics are literally speaking Dugin's language. They're repeating his concepts, his wording and even his language - all this "sacred" and esoteric bullshit that is so popular in Russia. Very likely, they're not even realizing they're speaking Dugin :)

@dump_stack

From first hand observations, EU infrastructure funds are *not* an "aid" really.

They give you 80% of cash and then they audit the progress of the investment very thoroughly, and if there are irregularities, you have to return what you got.

So it's a very good way to enable infrastructure investments (roads, electric grid, hospitals etc) that you *actually* want to make, but very poor way to steal money.

In Poland it worked great :)

@dump_stack

> "our aid is good, their aid is bad"

If you look at the GDP per capita, this is precisely the only logical conclusion. If GDP per capita is 3x larger in Sumskas than in Островец, two towns 10 km apart, one in Lithuania, another in Belarus, then the only explanation is the political and economic system.

From political point of view, Russia had its chance for 30 years to build a sustainable economy with its incredible oil and gas income.

And it failed.

@dump_stack

The first batch of countries (Poland, Czech, Hungary etc) joined NATO in 1999.

The support for joining in Poland one year before was >85%, in Czech - >90%.

Guess why...

@dump_stack

> it was agreed on the time of the dissolution of the Warsaw pact

Except there was no such agreement.

And except it was not NATO that "expanded" but it was countries like Poland who begged to join NATO after KGB putch (1993), war in Chechnya (all 90's) and public declarations of Russian politicians about "restoration of USSR in its previous borders" (Zhirinovsky).

@dump_stack

I strongly recommend reading Dugin's "The Basics of Geopolitics" (1997). Not because it's a good book, but because it had actually influence a lot of people.

Reading Dugin is a bit like reading Marx/Engels or Hitler: on every single page I was exclaiming "oh no, for fuck's sake, you can't be basing this whole argument on this silly fallacy!!!" -- and then they're still doing it throughout the whole book 🤦‍♂️

@dump_stack

And historically Russia isn't particularly known for making its satellite countries rich, especially if their sole purpose is to serve as a buffer zone according to the 19th century "geopolitical" military doctrines that are still mainstream in Russian political elites.

This was the case with Ukraine, this is the case with Belarus. Cheap gas and oil wasn't to help "people with the same culture" but quite the opposite - prevent any structural reforms and keep them dependent.

@dump_stack

As for the Tikhanouskaya quote: she says "my main objective" (главная цель) so this criticism is easily dismissed even on semantic level as having a main objective (fair elections) doesn't contradict having additional objectives (like economic alignment with EU).

@dump_stack

So let's now compare a neighbour country, that started from the very same GDP per capita level in 1990, also with a lot of ethnic Russian population, the same geography - one has $19'445 per capita, while the other has $6663 per capita.

The only difference being one is aligned with EU, the other - with Russian.

I think this explains pretty well why people in Ukraine, Belarus - and yes, Russia - are quite disappointed with the Russian model of economy.

@dump_stack

> I would prefer Belarus as a really independent actor

Look, there's no space for "real independence" if your GDP per capita is ½ of the other country's.

The question is then whether Belarus can better develop its economy with Russia or EU. And the first part of the answer to that is to see how it developed with Russia over the last 3 decades as seen on the same chart.

@dump_stack @IngaLovinde @bad_immigrant

Sorry for that, I know your views, just I'm just being overreacting after 2 weeks spent debating with USSR pensioners on Twitter 🤦‍♂️

@dump_stack @IngaLovinde @bad_immigrant

> if you tell that the only thing is to have a real election ASAP,

Ok, but did she *actually* say that? In any case I know in the past (Poland 80's, Ukraine 2014) the promise of securing foreign loans was actually the key advantage of the opposition parties.

Because the typical argument for preserving status quo goes like: wait, if we split from Russia, they won't credit us anymore. So promise of loans = promise of independence from Russia.

@dump_stack @IngaLovinde @bad_immigrant

> why do you assume that I'll criticize her

Because all Russian media are highlighting it as something clandestine and if you raise this topic it sounds just like the same argument :)

@dump_stack @IngaLovinde @bad_immigrant

He has two ways to go now: escalate or deescalate.

Deescalation can be tactical or strategic. Tactical - he kind-of-steps-down but actually remains at power. Strategic - he actually steps down, new elections are announced, he refrains from violence. The first buys him some time, solves nothing.

Escalation is a simple and within the logic of Russian and Soviet model of authority, solves nothing and may end him up like Janukovych.

@dump_stack @IngaLovinde @bad_immigrant

Discussing this from legal point of view is irrelevant and of little use, because I believe none of us is an expert in Belarus constitutional law.

I think the key part here is that the sitting president has lost his legitimacy (in both popular and legal sense) as result of electoral fraud and violence against opposition.

@dump_stack @IngaLovinde @bad_immigrant

> they want only to make a real election ASAP.

If she hadn't had anything tangible on the table, you could criticize her she's got nothing tangible :) So yes, it's definitely about having a real elections ASAP because its results are predictable. Also I don't see anything wrong with EU loan, granted that Russia had been granting loan and gas price discounts to Belarus for decades.

A Redmi Note on #OpenBazaar denominated in BTC costs $210 today, $198 tomorrow, possibly $230.

Then, I buy BTC on Uphold and try to send it to Haven wallet but the minute I type OTP code to authorize transaction, the price of BTC changes and it won't cover transaction fee 🤦‍♂️

Who would even buy anything this way? It's like paying for goods with oil futures or Apple shares... 🤦‍♂️

@dump_stack @bad_immigrant

I somehow missed your comment back then!

So no, I don't think change of government in either Ukraine or - hopefully - in Belarus can be described as a "coup", which historically described sudden and unexpected capture of power by an internal power group, with support from outside or without.

In neither country it's sudden or unexpected, in both it follows a decades long popular discontent and attempts by opposition to get share of power by democratic means.